2/7/99

The steady exodus of twentysomethings a trend that won't end suddenly

By Genna McLaughlin

TRIBUNE-REVIEW

What goes up, must come down. But how far down? Southwestern Pennsylvania's population has steadily declined for years, and it appears the free fall won't end soon.

Pennsylvania State Data Center projections show every county in the region except Indiana, Butler and Greene will lose residents through 2020. Those three counties could have a total increase of 18,438 people, according to the center's estimates based on birth, death and migration.

Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Fayette, Somerset, Washington and Westmoreland counties are expected to lose a combined total of 198,513 people.

"The region looks like this not because of what is happening now but because of what happened 15 years ago," said Steven Manners, assistant director of the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Social and Urban Research.

Population numbers still reflect the demise of the steel industry in the 1970s and 1980s. Any changes made now will take just as long to show up in rising population numbers.

That includes effects from development projects such as Plan B, the $809 million proposal to build new stadiums for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Pirates and expand the David L. Lawrence Convention Center in Pittsburgh. Proponents promise it will jump-start the region, attracting new companies and new employees.

Manners said if such projects are to affect the population, it will take 20 years. "You're talking about a $50 billion economy," he said. "Even these Plan B types of development, under the best of conditions, don't show the impact you think they might."

Nevertheless, city groups working to attract young professionals to the region are embracing Plan B. They include the Pittsburgh Urban Magnet Project.

"Both from pure jobs to quality of life, I don't think that you can be a major player unless you have this type of development," said Christine Grzyb, spokeswoman for PUMP.

"We try and advocate what would best retain young people in Pittsburgh," Grzyb said.

The region so far has failed to do that. State data center numbers predict the percentage of 25- to 34-year-olds will continue to shrink in most counties over the next 20 years.

Meanwhile, the percentage of people 85 and older will increase significantly. "The 85 and older group is the fastest growing group," said Marion Yoder of the Pennsylvania Department of Aging. "The reason they make up such a high percentage in Allegheny County and western Pennsylvania is because young people are leaving and moving to other places."

An increase in elderly residents can be good for the economy, he said.

"They have a stabilizing effect. They bring Social Security. If the local economy goes sour, the income for older people is constant."